Over 92% of Southern services are running to time against the temporary weekday revised timetable.
92% of all Southern trains that had run by 8.30 am on Monday arrived at their destination within 5 minutes of their scheduled arrival time. By 4.30 pm, the same figure had fallen to 82%.
44.2% of Southern Mainline and Coast trains were not at terminus on time.
This figure is accurate according to one definition of ‘on time’: trains arriving within five minutes. According to another definition—within one minute—an estimated 70% of trains during this period were late.
"As of 08:30 over 92% of Southern services were running to time against the temporary weekday revised timetable"
Southern Railway, 11 July 2016
"44.2% of Southern Mainline and Coast trains were not at terminus on time [29 May to 25 June 2016]"
BBC News, 11 July 2016
When is a train 'on time' and when is it late? According to one definition, most Southern trains ran on time last month. According to the other, most did not.
The debate comes off the back of a protest by commuters at Victoria station on Monday over Southern rail delays and the train operator’s decision to temporarily cut 341 trains a day.
Govia Thameslink Railway, which owns Southern, introduced a reduced timetable at the beginning of this week in order to make services 'better and more consistent' as it deals with industrial action.
Within five minutes is 'on time' for some services
'On time' doesn't refer to trains arriving on the dot, it's used for trains which arrive within a certain number of minutes of the scheduled arrival time.
Network Rail explains:
"A train is defined as on time if it arrives at the destination within five minutes (4 minutes 59 seconds or less) of the planned arrival time for London and South East or regional services, or 10 minutes (9 minutes 59 seconds or less) for long distance services."
These definitions are based on the Public Performance Measure (PPM), which is an industry standard for punctuality.
So, in Southern's case, trains that arrive up to five minutes later than scheduled are counted as 'on time'.
56% 'on time' in June
The latest figures on punctuality cover the period from the 29 May to 25 June 2016. During this period, when industrial action intensified, 55.8% of trains arrived within five minutes of their arrival time—leaving 44.2% which did not. That's the figure the BBC features in its reports.
These results are the second lowest of any train operator nationally: only the Gatwick Express, at 54.9%, had fewer trains arriving within five minutes of stated arrival time.
31% within a minute
Another measure used in the industry is ‘right time performance’ (RTP), which is trains arriving within a minute of their arrival time. Only 31.4% of Southern trains arrived on time between 29 until 25 June according to RTP. Gatwick express is again the only operator with a lower rate: 30.2%.
This particular measure isn't considered to be a reliable measure of performance: the figures aren't completely accurate and, Network Rail argues, don't reflect levels of passenger satisfaction.
So, two definitions of on time. According to one, most trains have Southern trains ran on time last month. According to the other, most did not.
The new timetable: mixed reports
Southern says that since it introduced the temporary reduced timetable, the service has become less overstretched and ‘more robust’. But newspapers have reported delays and overcrowding.
On Monday, the train operator said 92% of all services that had run by 8.30 am that day had been on time. It updated this later in the day, at 4.30 pm, when it said 82% of all trains that day had run on time.
We have since spoken to Southern and confirmed that it is using the Public Performance Measure—so this is the percentage of trains that have arrived within five minutes of their stated arrival time.
Southern added its staff had not reported any incidents of overcrowding on platforms or trains. We’ve asked if reported overcrowding refers to unsafe levels of passengers on trains or platforms—or if it includes safe but busy numbers of passengers as well. Some passengers have reported otherwise.
Southern has said passengers can report overcrowding to customer services.
Update (15 July 2016)
Southern has today published summary figures on punctuality. About 63% of trains arrived at their destination within five minutes of the stated time last week (before the timetable was reduced), compared to 80% for Monday to Thursday this week. 89% is the average across the rail network, it says.
We're pleased to see the operator's latest press release explains the definition—in this case—of 'on time'.
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