ITV Sunak V Starmer Debate: fact checked

The first televised debate of the 2024 general election saw the Prime Minister and Conservative leader Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer go head-to-head.

The event took place on 4 June in front of a live audience in Salford, and was broadcast by ITV—it’s now available to watch on ITVX.

Here’s a round-up of some of the claims from the debate which we’ve looked at.

The economy and tax

At the start of the debate, Mr Sunak mentioned his plan to reduce inflation. 

Mr Sunak did make halving inflation the top priority of his government last year. But many factors can impact inflation, some beyond any government’s influence. It’s the independent Bank of England that sets interest rates—the main tool used to control inflation—not the government. 

Mr Sunak also claimed that under Labour there would be “£2,000 higher taxes for every working family”. This seems to be based on Conservative estimates of Labour spending plans. Labour disputes these, but the Conservatives have claimed they amount to a £38.5 billion “black hole”. 

The Conservative calculations cover a long list of policy announcements and make a number of assumptions. We’re currently working on a full fact check of their figures which we expect to publish later this week.

Mr Starmer meanwhile claimed there have been 26 tax rises under the Conservatives. 

This is similar to a claim we’ve looked at before about there having been 25 tax rises since the last election—and we’re still not sure how Labour has arrived at this figure. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says it’s likely there have been hundreds of specific tax rises (and cuts) since 2019.

Mr Starmer also said taxes were “at the highest level for 70 years”. 

As the graph below shows, this was true of the so-called ‘tax burden’ in 2022/23. As we wrote last month, it’s since fallen slightly, but is forecast to increase over each of the next five years to a near-record level. 

Pensions and the ‘retirement tax’

Mr Sunak also claimed that under Labour plans there would be a “retirement tax” coming for British pensioners.

This is based on forecasts showing that under current government policy the state pension is set to rise above the personal allowance for the first time. 

Labour says it’ll maintain current government policy, while the Conservatives say they’ll re-establish a higher personal allowance for pensioners, so the state pension does not exceed the income tax threshold. We wrote about this last week. 

Energy bills

Mr Starmer said energy bills are going to go up “in the autumn”.

Analysts forecast that in October the energy price cap will increase to the equivalent of £1,762 a year for a typical household using gas and electricity (and paying by direct debit). 

However, it’s worth noting the price cap is currently at its lowest level since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. 

Health and the NHS

When the debate turned to health, Mr Starmer claimed the last Labour government saw patient satisfaction in the NHS at a record high. 

Peak public satisfaction with the NHS was recorded in 2010, just after Labour left power. But we’ve not found a consistent measure of patient satisfaction over the NHS’s history. 

Mr Sunak said NHS waiting lists were high because “the NHS was impacted by industrial action”.

It’s hard to be sure what impact strikes have had on waiting lists, but analysis by both think tanks and the NHS suggests they’ve had some effect. 

We’ve written more about strikes and waiting lists in our explainer on the topic.

Education

Mr Sunak claimed that “English schoolchildren are the best readers anywhere in the western world”.

This appears to be based on the results of the latest Progress in International Reading Literacy Study, which took place for nine to ten-year-olds in England in 2022. 

But according to another measure (PISA test results), in 2022 15-year-old pupils in Ireland, Canada and the US had a higher average reading score than pupils the same age in England.

Immigration

When discussing migration, Mr Sunak claimed that “over the last 12 months” small boat arrivals are down by “a third”. That’s not correct. 

The latest annual figures do show that small boat arrivals fell by around a third in 2023, year-on-year. But we have more recent daily data which paints a different picture.

Those provisional figures show that so far in 2024 small boat arrivals are up 38% compared to the same period last year. And if you look at the daily data for the last 12 months (from 4 June 2023 to 3 June 2024) small boat arrivals were down 25% on the previous year, rather than by a third as Mr Sunak appeared to claim. 

Mr Sunak also said that almost 20 European countries “believe that you need to return people to a safe country”, in reference to the Rwanda plan.

It’s true other European countries have expressed an interest in processing asylum seekers in a third country.

But from the reports we’ve seen, this is not the same as the Rwanda scheme, where migrants would not be able to re-apply for asylum in the UK. 

Defence

Mr Sunak also said Labour hasn’t matched the Conservatives’ pledge to increase defence spending to 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Labour says it would do this “as soon as resources allow”, whereas the Conservatives have pledged to do so by 2030.

Full Fact will be continuing to monitor claims from more TV debates as the general election campaign continues—including from the BBC’s seven-party debate this Friday.