More confusion over how many people are waiting for NHS treatment

An MP, a public figure and a number of social media users have misstated the number of people waiting for NHS care in England, incorrectly suggesting an additional 1.2 million people are waiting for elective care.

According to the most recently published data, which covers December 2023, there were 7.6 million cases or “pathways” where someone was waiting for NHS treatment.

But some people may be waiting for more than one course of treatment, meaning they appear on multiple pathways.

By the end of December 2023, there were around 6.37 million people waiting for at least one form of elective treatment.

Politicians and public figures must take care to use the best evidence, and most recent available data, and describe it accurately, so people are not misled about the state of public services. 

These claims have been made before

Labour MP Clive Efford made the incorrect claim in February during a House of Commons debate on reforming NHS Dentistry.

He stated: “If the Tories cared about the NHS, we would not have 7.6 million people on the NHS waiting list and dentistry in crisis.”

Founder of the energy supplier Ecotricity, Dale Vince, also made the claim on Facebook, stating that “7.6 million people are on the waiting list, and it’s set to rise to 8 million by this summer”. Following contact from Full Fact Mr Vince has updated the Facebook post, although the post now refers to the waiting list peak of 7.8 million courses of treatment in September, rather than 7.6 million in December.

The suggestion that the waiting list will peak at eight million by summer 2024 likely comes from October 2023 analysis by the Health Foundation. The figure was the main estimate of several, and was based on various possible changes to NHS demand, and the likelihood of strike action.

The 7.6 million “people” figure has also been shared by a number of users on social media.

These figures are often quoted in public and misinterpreted.

Towards the end of last year, Full Fact identified similar claims made in Parliament by a number of MPs, including Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, and Labour party chair and shadow women and equalities secretary Anneliese Dodds, as well as Liberal Democrat MP Sarah Olney.

Variations of the claim had also appeared in print, for example in a Guardian column, a press release from the Royal College of Surgeons, and a headline in a Facebook post from the i newspaper.

Health policy for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is devolved, while the UK Government is responsible for NHS England. As a result, claims about waiting lists in context of the UK Government’s record usually refer specifically to English waiting lists. The claims fact checked in this article likely refer to England.

We have contacted Clive Efford’s office for comment and will update this article with any response we receive.

Image courtesy of Hush Naidoo Jade Photography