Sun wrong to claim lockdown doubled suicide rates

“It’s time for the Government to look at the facts around other causes of death in this country and implement some common sense. Particularly as those figures will undoubtedly rise as a direct result of lockdown. For starters...suicides have virtually doubled”

Last week, Sun columnist Jane Moore claimed that suicides have “virtually doubled” as a direct result of lockdown.

There is little evidence that the number of suicides has risen by this amount, if at all. Samaritans media guidelines say “speculation about the ‘trigger’ or cause of a suicide can oversimplify the issue and should be avoided.” 

Because all suspected suicides are subject to an inquest before being registered, which tends to take five to six months, it can take quite a while for trends in suicide rates to become apparent in official registered death data.

Around half of all suicides registered in England in 2020 actually happened in that year. That means official data can’t tell us yet whether suicides increased after the first lockdown in spring 2020, let alone the winter lockdowns. 

However, there is a study which looks at real-time reports of suspected suicides to provide a more timely indication of what’s happening.

A recent report from the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health (NCISH) at the University of Manchester said: 

“We examined suicide figures from established "real-time surveillance" (RTS) systems in several parts of England, total population 9 million, comparing the months pre-lockdown (January-March 2020) to post-lockdown (April-August 2020). 

“The average number of suicides per month varied but there was no evidence of a rise post-lockdown.”

The authors acknowledge some limitations with their study. Because the study is based in one area of the country it can’t rule out different trends elsewhere. 

Also the time periods means this data doesn’t look at whether suicide rates changed after the second and third national lockdowns. 

Full Fact has approached the Sun for comment on the source for Ms Moore’s claim. 

It is possible she was referring to a statistic published by the London Ambulance Service in October that the number of suicide-related callouts had doubled over the previous year.

There’s no reason to question that figure, but the number of callouts attended by an ambulance service may not correspond to the number of suicides in total. 

Another possible source is the false claim that suicides had increased 200% during the first national lockdown, which went viral last summer. 

We fact checked this claim at the time, which possibly referred to the rise in calls to a mental health charity support line, not a rise in suicides. 

But this raises an important point. Just because there doesn’t appear to be evidence of the lockdown or pandemic impacting suicide rates at the moment, that doesn’t mean they haven’t negatively affected mental health more generally. 

Contacting Samaritans

The Samaritans’ helpline is available at all hours and can be contacted free on 116 123, or you can email jo@samaritans.org.