How does the number of migrant returns compare to the past?

At Prime Minister’s Questions on 18 October, the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak claimed that “we are returning thousands more people this year than we have in the past.”

We’ve asked Number 10 what specific time period he was referring to, and whether his comments related specifically to people whose asylum applications had failed, or all people removed from the UK.

The number of asylum seekers being returned can only be compared since 2020, but has increased in the most recent data. Meanwhile, the number of people overall being returned from the UK has been increasing since 2020, but remains lower compared to longer-term figures.

Claims based on statistics that are made without appropriate context and caveats can damage public trust in both official information and politicians. Ministers should use official information transparently and with all relevant context and caveats when a claim is first made.

Overall returns

Ad-hoc data published by the government shows that returns in the year to June 2023 increased by 7,251 compared to the same period the year before, and were also higher compared to the years to June 2021, and June 2020.

These figures show voluntary and enforced returns, and include asylum-related returns, foreign national offender returns and others (for example, people who overstay their visas, or breach their visa conditions).

Official quarterly data published by the government similarly suggests that while the number of people returned from the UK has been increasing recently, it is still relatively low compared to longer-term figures.

The data shows that in the second quarter of 2010, when the Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition took office, a total of 11,213 people were returned from the UK.

Over the following decade the number of returns each quarter gradually decreased, reaching its lowest level of 827 in the second quarter of 2020. Returns have since increased to 6,189 in the second quarter of 2023 (though this figure is not yet official).

Both enforced and voluntary returns in 2020 declined to lowest levels since comparable records began in 2010, before beginning to increase again, with a steeper decline seen in voluntary returns.

The low point for returns coincided with the Covid-19 pandemic, though returns had been falling for several years previously.

In a briefing last year the Migration Observatory said that there was “little hard evidence” to explain the fall in voluntary returns, which coincided with the government’s “hostile environment” policy—an approach to reducing the number of illegal immigrants in the UK that in part aimed to increase the number of voluntary returns.

It added that the decrease in enforced returns was likely due to a number of factors, with the Home Office acknowledging in a 2019 report that the decrease coincided “with changes across the immigration system” including a reduction in the use of the immigration detention system, a pause in data sharing between government departments and lower morale among frontline enforcement staff.

The Home Office says that the decrease in both voluntary and enforced returns over the long term “is likely due to a number of factors, including tighter screening of passengers prior to travel and changes in visa processes and regimes.”

Asylum seeker returns

Mr Sunak’s comments were in response to a question about asylum seekers, although Number 10 has not confirmed whether his claim was intended to refer to asylum seeker returns specifically, or all returns.

Data on asylum seeker returns can only be compared since October 2020. Home Office figures show that in 2022 the number of asylum seekers being returned, whether voluntarily or through enforced returns, increased by 76% compared to 2021.

Asylum seeker returns accounted for approximately 15% of all returns in 2021, and around 19% in 2022.

The most recent data, covering the year to March 2023, shows a total of 3,193 asylum seekers were returned from the UK—19% of total returns over this period.

Image courtesy of UK Prime Minister