Politics Live

Full Fact’s rolling blog of fact checks, commentary and analysis.

1 July 2024, 6.45pm

Conservative leaflets repeat 'national ULEZ' claim

Several people have shared photos on X (formerly Twitter) of Conservative campaign leaflets that suggest Labour could introduce a “National ULEZ”, among other things. 

The leaflets, which appear to have been distributed in a number of different constituencies, ask if readers want to give Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer a “blank cheque” and say Labour could “introduce a National ULEZ scheme and a Pay-Per-Mile Road Tax forcing drivers to pay, just like in Labour London”.

It comes after the Conservatives last week ran hundreds of targeted Facebook ads, which now appear to have been taken down, with the caption: “Labour’s national ULEZ: coming to a road near you this July”. 

The Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) is a ‘clean air zone’ in London where people are charged a daily rate for driving a non-compliant vehicle—a measure intended to tackle air pollution.

As we wrote last week, these claims are misleading. Labour has never said it will introduce a ‘national ULEZ’ in July and there is no specific evidence it plans to do so in the future. 

While Labour has expressed support for clean air zones in the past, its manifesto does not include any proposals for a ‘national ULEZ’ or a pay-per-mile road tax.

We’ve contacted the Conservative party for comment.

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30 June 2024, 2.54pm

The final Sunday morning politics shows before polling day: fact checked

With just days to go before voters head to the polls on 4 July, this morning saw the election campaign’s final round of Sunday politics shows. 

On the BBC’s extended Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “Our school children are now the best readers in the western world”. His deputy, Oliver Dowden, made a similar claim on Sky News’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

As we’ve written before, this claim appears to be based on the results of the latest Progress in International Reading Literacy Study, which took place for primary school pupils in England in 2022. However it’s worth noting that according to a different measure, Programme for International Student (PISA) test results, 15-year-old pupils in Ireland, Canada and the US had a higher average reading score than those in England in 2022. 

Also on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Labour’s national campaign coordinator Pat McFadden was asked how the party’s net zero plans would cut energy bills by £300 per year. He responded by referring to Labour’s plans to drive “the transition to renewables”. But, as was pointed out by Ms Kuenssberg, the £300 figure is out of date and is not based on an assessment of Labour’s plans. We’ve also explained this fully in our fact check here

Mr Sunak said independent forecasts show the so-called “tax burden” under a Labour government would “rise to the highest level in our nation’s history”. It’s true that analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies does suggest the tax burden would increase under Labour’s plans and by 2028/29 reach the highest level on record. But the same analysis also forecasts the tax burden to increase under the Conservatives’ plans, though slightly less than under Labour. 

The IFS says the Conservative plans could mean the tax burden is at the third highest level on record by 2028/29.

 

Meanwhile, over on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, the term “supermajority” was used during the interview with Mr Dowden. As we’ve explained before, unlike in some other countries this term has no specific meaning in the UK parliamentary context.  

28 June 2024, 7.59pm

Labour repeats misleading claim that Conservative plans would mean a £4,800 increase in the average mortgage

We’ve seen several repeats today of a misleading claim that the Conservatives’ plans would lead to a £4,800 increase in the average mortgage. 

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said in a post on X (formerly Twitter) that “more Tory recklessness” will “cost families £4,800 more on their mortgages.”

Labour’s X account made the same claim, and in another post shared an image of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on a mock ‘for sale’ sign saying “Rishi’s mega mortgages” alongside “your mortgage up £4,800”. The sign is in the same style as a fake shop front set up by the party in south London, which also features the £4,800 figure.

As we’ve explained several times since it was first used by Labour earlier this month, this is a speculative figure presented as fact, and is therefore misleading.

£4,800 seems to be an estimate of the average annual extra cost of a mortgage at the end of the next parliament. It is based on several uncertain assumptions, and some of the detail of Labour’s workings remains unclear.

The UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) has warned that presenting figures without full context may “damage trust in the data and the claims these data inform.”

We’ve contacted the Labour party about their use of this figure and will update this post if we receive a response.

28 June 2024, 2.30pm

How many people on the NHS waiting list are long-term sick?

During the BBC debate on Wednesday night between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, an audience member told both men that she used to work but had had to stop due to illness. 

Following that question, Mr Starmer said “if we are going to get people back into work is we have to tackle these terrible waiting lists”. Later, Mr Sunak challenged this saying: “most of the people who we’re talking about […] aren't on an NHS waiting list.” 

We've also been asked on X about how many people are out of work and also on the NHS waiting list. 

The NHS does not publish figures for how many people on the waiting list are in employment or classed as long-term sick so it cannot prove whether the claims by Mr Sunak or Mr Starmer are correct.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated in 2022 that there were 650,000 people who were economically inactive—defined as people not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks—due to long term sickness on the NHS waiting list, which was a quarter of the long-term sick inactive population. 

An Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey conducted between 16 January and 15 February 2024, found that 49% of people who are economically inactive due to long term sickness said they were waiting for a hospital appointment, test or to start receiving medical treatment through the NHS. 

However, this is not the same as the main NHS waiting list which only covers consultant-led care. Those who said they are waiting for care could be waiting for follow-up appointments, mental health or community services, none of which are counted in the waiting list. 

However, the OBR said last year that “the rising NHS waiting list itself is unlikely to have been a significant driver of rising inactivity due to long-term sickness in recent years”. 

28 June 2024, 2.17pm

Labour leaflet repeats claim about being £5,883 worse off under the Conservatives

We’ve seen a leaflet from Labour making the claim that “since 2019 Tory chaos has cost you £5,883”.

This isn’t the first time Labour have made a claim using this figure, and there are a number of problems with it. They previously claimed “typical families” are £5,883 worse off “under Rishi Sunak”.

But the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that real household disposable income per person will fall by £166 between 2019/20 and 2024/25, from £21,767 to £21,601. This equates to just under £400 for the average household.

So where did Labour’s figure come from? The party says it’s the increase in six household costs faced by “typical families” since 2019:

  • Energy price cap: £479 
  • Groceries: £1,040
  • Council tax: £421
  • Mortgages: £2,880
  • Personal tax: £874
  • Motoring: £189

But there are a number of problems with this figure.

Firstly, it only considers six household outgoings, some of which will not apply to many families—such as those who don’t have a car or mortgage—and doesn’t count others like water and phone bills.

Secondly, it doesn’t take into account any changes in wages or benefits since 2019.

We first fact checked this earlier in the month and the leaflet repeating the claim has been sent out in the Earley and Woodley constituency.

27 June 2024, 2.17pm

Have 15,000 or 50,000 arrived on small boats since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister?

While monitoring media outlets this morning we spotted that the lead article on the front page of today's Daily Telegraph (‘Sunak's plea to voters: Don't surrender Britain to Labour’) quotes Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer in last night’s BBC Prime Ministerial Debate saying: “There are tens of thousands, 15,000 people have come [across the Channel] since Rishi Sunak has been Prime Minister.” 

The Daily Express, on page four (‘Sunak rips into Starmer on immigration in TV debate’), also includes the same quote.

But we think this is an error and possibly misquotes Mr Starmer. On BBC iPlayer at 25:27 we think Mr Starmer says “50,000 people” not 15,000. At other points throughout the debate (22:15, 28:37 and 29:56) we think he also says 50,000.

Indeed, this figure tallies with reports this week that more than 50,000 migrants have arrived in the UK after crossing the Channel since Mr Sunak became Prime Minister, including over 13,000 so far this year. 

Since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister on 25 October 2022 until yesterday (26 June 2024) 50,258 people have arrived on small boats. 

We have contacted the Labour party, as well as the Telegraph and Express for comment, and will update this post if they respond.

27 June 2024, 10.31am

Some common misunderstandings about junior doctors’ pay

Junior doctors—now also called “resident doctors”—begin a five-day strike in England today. In the past we’ve seen these strikes provoke much discussion (and some confusion) about their pay.

For one thing, no junior doctors are currently paid £14 an hour. As we’ve said more than once, this figure was the basic pay (in 2022/23) for first-year doctors only (who make up about a tenth of all junior doctors). 

Most junior doctors earn substantially more than this because they are more senior, or because of extra earnings for things like unsocial hours. In any case, a pay rise last year means that even the basic pay of first-year doctors is now slightly higher, at £15.53 an hour. 

At the time of writing, we don’t yet know what the Review Body on Doctors’ and Dentists’ Remuneration will recommend for 2024/25.  

The real value of junior doctors’ pay has certainly fallen since the late 2000s, but we have seen claims that doctors received an above inflation pay rise last year. This was debatable, at least where junior doctors were concerned, because it depended which measure of inflation you used.

We’ve also seen some recent arguments about how much it would cost the government to meet junior doctors’ pay demands. The health secretary Victoria Atkins and the BMA, a union that represents many junior doctors, have disagreed about this recently.

While we haven’t checked those recent claims specifically, the Department of Health and Social Care and the BMA have disagreed about this before. In our previous fact check on the subject, we explained that the real issue on that occasion was whether you accounted for the money that doctors pay back to the government in tax.  

You’ll find these and other fact checks about junior doctors on our dedicated junior doctors page.

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26 June 2024, 9.49pm

Posted on X

Rishi Sunak said in the #BBCDebate that “we have started cutting your taxes and I will keep cutting your taxes”.

National Insurance contributions have been reduced from 12% to 8%, but the so-called ‘tax burden’ is high, and forecast to rise further. #GE24

The effective personal tax rate is at its lowest since 1975, but that doesn’t include all the taxes people pay.

We’ve written more here. #BBCDebate #GE24
https://buff.ly/3xzjHZn

26 June 2024, 9.35pm

Posted on X

Rishi Sunak said at #BBCDebate “for everyone in work we are going to continue cutting National Insurance, £900 this year”.

That’s how much someone on the average salary, not everyone in work, will save on NI this year but it doesn’t account for other tax changes. #GE24

@TheIFS says once the impact of all tax changes since 2021 is factored in, the average worker will save £340 in 2024/25.

We recently checked a similar claim. #BBCDebate #GE24

https://buff.ly/3zsqZhY

26 June 2024, 9.14pm

Posted on X

During the #BBCDebate Keir Starmer said Labour’s manifesto plans are “fully funded” and “fully costed”.

But @TheIFS cast doubt on both Labour and the Conservatives’ claims to have fully-costed manifestos earlier this week. #GE24

https://buff.ly/3RJOZUk

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