Election Live

We’ve seen a leaflet from Labour making the claim that “since 2019 Tory chaos has cost you £5,883”.

This isn’t the first time Labour have made a claim using this figure, and there are a number of problems with it. They previously claimed “typical families” are £5,883 worse off “under Rishi Sunak”.

But the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that real household disposable income per person will fall by £166 between 2019/20 and 2024/25, from £21,767 to £21,601. This equates to just under £400 for the average household.

So where did Labour’s figure come from? The party says it’s the increase in six household costs faced by “typical families” since 2019:

• Energy price cap: £479 
• Groceries: £1,040
• Council tax: £421
• Mortgages: £2,880
• Personal tax: £874
• Motoring: £189

But there are a number of problems with this figure.

Firstly, it only considers six household outgoings, some of which will not apply to many families—such as those who don’t have a car or mortgage—and doesn’t count others like water and phone bills.

Secondly, it doesn’t take into account any changes in wages or benefits since 2019.

We first fact checked this earlier in the month and the leaflet repeating the claim has been sent out in the Earley and Woodley constituency.

While monitoring media outlets this morning we spotted that the lead article on the front page of today's Daily Telegraph (‘Sunak's plea to voters: Don't surrender Britain to Labour’) quotes Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer in last night’s BBC Prime Ministerial Debate saying: “There are tens of thousands, 15,000 people have come [across the Channel] since Rishi Sunak has been Prime Minister.” 

The Daily Express, on page four (‘Sunak rips into Starmer on immigration in TV debate’), also includes the same quote.

But we think this is an error and possibly misquotes Mr Starmer. On BBC iPlayer at 25:27 we think Mr Starmer says “50,000 people” not 15,000. At other points throughout the debate (22:15, 28:37 and 29:56) we think he also says 50,000.

Indeed, this figure tallies with reports this week that more than 50,000 migrants have arrived in the UK after crossing the Channel since Mr Sunak became Prime Minister, including over 13,000 so far this year. 

Since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister on 25 October 2022 until yesterday (26 June 2024) 50,258 people have arrived on small boats. 

We have contacted the Labour party, as well as the Telegraph and Express for comment, and will update this post if they respond.

Junior doctors—now also called “resident doctors”—begin a five-day strike in England today. In the past we’ve seen these strikes provoke much discussion (and some confusion) about their pay.

For one thing, no junior doctors are currently paid £14 an hour. As we’ve said more than once, this figure was the basic pay (in 2022/23) for first-year doctors only (who make up about a tenth of all junior doctors). 

Most junior doctors earn substantially more than this because they are more senior, or because of extra earnings for things like unsocial hours. In any case, a pay rise last year means that even the basic pay of first-year doctors is now slightly higher, at £15.53 an hour. 

At the time of writing, we don’t yet know what the Review Body on Doctors’ and Dentists’ Remuneration will recommend for 2024/25.  

The real value of junior doctors’ pay has certainly fallen since the late 2000s, but we have seen claims that doctors received an above inflation pay rise last year. This was debatable, at least where junior doctors were concerned, because it depended which measure of inflation you used.

We’ve also seen some recent arguments about how much it would cost the government to meet junior doctors’ pay demands. The health secretary Victoria Atkins and the BMA, a union that represents many junior doctors, have disagreed about this recently.

While we haven’t checked those recent claims specifically, the Department of Health and Social Care and the BMA have disagreed about this before. In our previous fact check on the subject, we explained that the real issue on that occasion was whether you accounted for the money that doctors pay back to the government in tax.  

You’ll find these and other fact checks about junior doctors on our dedicated junior doctors page.

In a post shared on X (formerly Twitter) the Conservative party claimed: “Labour have said they wouldn't put up your taxes. But it's now becoming clear that they have every intention to put them up 👇”.

The post features a video of consumer financial journalist and broadcaster Martin Lewis speaking on Good Morning Britain (GMB) earlier today.

In the clip Mr Lewis says: “I had a conversation with a senior member of the Labour party, a private conversation, as I do with both parties. And the exact phrase they used with me is, when I asked about a particular policy, they said: ‘we’re not putting it in our manifesto because I can’t commit we’ll do it, but it is my aim we will do it over the next parliament’.”

The Conservatives appear to be using Mr Lewis’s comment to suggest that Labour intends to increase taxes beyond what has been set out in the party’s manifesto.

But, as Mr Lewis himself has pointed out, this takes his comments out of context.

Replying to the Conservatives’ post directly, Mr Lewis said on X: “NO WHERE in this comment do I talk about taxes. And the policy that I discussed (i will keep private as it was private) was NOT about taxes, or tax rises, it was about something that would be a positive change. [sic]”

Mr Lewis’s comments on GMB followed an interview with Labour’s shadow work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall, who, when asked whether she would rule out scrapping the 25% tax free allowance on pensions, said “we have set out all of our plans in the manifesto, there is nothing in our manifesto the requires us to make any other changes”.

Immediately after the comment clipped by the Conservatives Mr Lewis added: “what you heard there is ‘it’s not in our manifesto’, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t planned to be done.”

So while Mr Lewis did broadly question whether Labour, if elected, might look to introduce policies in the future that weren’t in the party’s manifesto, at no point does he specifically suggest Labour is planning to increase taxes in addition to what the party has already confirmed.

Mr Lewis did not offer any comment beyond what he said on social media. We’ve approached the Conservatives and the Labour party for comment and will update this post if we receive a response.