"Deradicalisation" referrals: young and increasing?

"The number of potential extremists being referred to the government's deradicalisation scheme is rising to record levels."

The Times, 8 October 2015

"Large proportion of those referred to UK deradicalisation scheme are under 18"

The Guardian, 8 October 2015

The BBC, ITV, Sky News and LBC have also reported similar claims to the effect that increasing numbers of people are being referred to a government "deradicalisation" programme.

We don't have a consistent set of figures, particularly over the last year or so, which clouds the picture somewhat.

It's broadly correct to say that referrals to the Channel "deradicalisation" scheme have been increasing each year, and that over a third of referrals have been children under the age of 18.

A complex picture

The Channel programme is described as "a multi-agency approach to identify and provide support to individuals who are at risk of being drawn into terrorism".

The first five months of 2015 saw more referrals to Channel than all of 2014, with 2015 referrals in 2015 (oddly enough) so far, compared to 1681 in 2014.

Those figures come from a Freedom of Information request sent to the National Police Chiefs' Council (NPCC).

Another FOI, sent to us by the NPCC, was the source of the figures reported today and relates to referrals over the summer of this year (796).

Adding these to the 2015 total takes us to 2,811 referrals, and counting, for this year.

Annual data available from 2007/08 to 2013/14 also shows year on year increases in referrals (except for 2011/12, when there was a slight fall). These increases are unsurprising in the early years as the programme was expanding.

We can't rely on these exact numbers too much, as the NPCC says the data is inconsistent across time and police forces, so these may be rough estimates.

Not a higher rate of referrals since a new duty on schools came in

The number of referrals over the summer has been linked to the new duty on teachers to "prevent people from being drawn into terrorism", introduced as part of the same Prevent counter-terrorism strategy that Channel falls under.

The guidance for the duty says that schools should consider making referrals to the Channel programme if they're concerned that pupils might be vulnerable to radicalisation.

Between June and August this year, just under 800 referrals were received. That works out at a little under nine a day (up to 11 a day in July).

There were just under 14 people a day referred between 1 January and 25 May, so more than over the summer.

That's not to say that the new duty may not lead to more people being referred, just that it doesn't appear to have happened straight away—and schools would've been closed over August at least, so it's also not very surprising that the rate hasn't jumped.

At least a third were under the age of 18

Nearly 40% of the summer referrals were under the age of 18, and a similar proportion (37%) can be seen looking over the period 2007/08 to 2013/14.

That's perhaps unsurprising: most young people go to school every day, which have a general duty to safeguard them, whereas lots of adults won't come into contact with schools or the other authorities to which safeguarding requirements apply.

About a fifth of referrals go on to receive support from Channel

Not everyone referred to the Channel programme actually gets support from it. One in five referrals were assessed "by a multi-agency panel to be vulnerable to being attracted towards terrorism" between 2007/08 and 2013/14, and would have gone on to receive support through the programme.

We don't know if the proportion has changed since then.

We also don't know if more are being referred over time because more people are being asked to refer, or because there are more individuals appearing susceptible to terrorism, or simply because authorities are becoming more cautious and so making more referrals.