How many prison places are available?

The government has today announced plans to allow some prisoners to be released after serving 40% of their sentences, in order to ease overcrowding in the prison estate. 

But just how many prison places are currently available? In this article we take a look at the latest numbers, and the measures proposed by the government and its predecessors to free up space. 

Current prison population

As of 12 July, the total prison population in England and Wales was 87,505. The useable operational capacity of the prison estate is currently 88,956, suggesting there are 1,451 places available. 

These figures do not take account of the “operating margin”, which “reflects the constraints imposed by the need to provide appropriate accommodation for different classes of prisoner i.e. by sex, age, security category, conviction status, single cell risk assessment and also due to geographical distribution”.

That margin is currently set at 1,350. This means that in theory there are a total of 2,801 spaces available throughout the estate, but in practice only 1,451 of them are actually “useable”. There are reportedly only 700 spaces available in closed men’s prisons. Prisons have been operating in excess of 99% capacity since 2023, according to Lord Chancellor Shabana Mahmood. 

The government’s plans, which are predicted to reduce the population by thousands, will see prisoners spend less time behind bars. But this change is more modest than it might appear. 

At present, offenders given a fixed term of imprisonment—known as a determinate sentence—of less than four years are normally released at the halfway point of their sentence, serving the rest in the community under supervision and with conditions. The government’s proposals will mean that in future, such prisoners will be released after serving 40% rather than 50% of their sentence. 

Some offenders, such as those guilty of violent or sexual offences and sentenced to more than four years are currently eligible for automatic release after serving 66% of their sentences. This will not change under the new plans. 

Allegations of scaremongering

Although some have suggested that Labour is scaremongering over what might happen if measures are not taken to reduce the current numbers being held, data from earlier this year suggests the number of people being held is set to significantly exceed the size of the current prison estate. 

The most recent prison population projections were released in February 2024 and project that the number of prisoners in England and Wales will rise to 94,500 by November this year. This figure would exceed the current useable operational capacity by around 5,500.

The highest ever prison population recorded was at the end of February this year, when it reached 88,300, meaning there was only room available for around 500 additional prisoners. The population fell the following month to 87,900. 

The government’s proposals also follow those already introduced by the previous government in an attempt to reduce pressure on the prison estate by freeing up additional capacity. 

Launched in October 2023, the end of custody supervised licence scheme (ECSL) initially allowed prisoners to be released up to 35 days before their automatic release date. With the prison population continuing to grow, this was expanded to 70 days before an automatic release date. Over the course of the scheme, over 10,000 offenders were released.

The move was heavily criticised at the time by Shabana Mahmood who was then the shadow justice minister and described it as “the most drastic form of early release for prisoners that this country has ever seen” and said it would cause “shockwaves and deep concern across our country”. 

However, the plans the government is announcing today potentially go further, as they will impact all prisoners serving under four years, not just those that are within 70 days of their automatic release date. 

While the vast majority of prisoners are given determinate sentences and therefore have an automatic early release date, different rules apply for other prisoners depending on the sentence handed out to them. The government has ruled out early release for violent or sexual offenders, and those convicted of terrorist offences.  

The previous Labour government ran its own early release scheme between 2007 and 2010 where some prisoners were let out up to 18 days early. Around 36,000 prisoners were released early before the scheme came to an end.