UKIP support stronger among those certain to vote

Today's Daily Politics picked up on a ComRes/ITV poll just published finding UKIP had opened "a clear lead" in the run up to next month's European Parliament elections - with UKIP leading with 38% and Labour trailing on 27%.

But BBC political editor Nick Robinson warned that the figures might relate only to those certain to vote, who tend to have the strongest allegiances and so who might make the gap appear more exaggerated.

Taking a look at the poll, he's right - the gap is smaller when looking at those with less certainty about whether they will vote.

For respondents between 50% and 100% likely to vote, 32% said they would vote UKIP, 28% Labour, 20% Conservative and 8% Liberal Democrats.