What was claimed
Since 2010, the UK’s credit rating has decreased from AAA to Aa3.
Our verdict
Correct. The UK’s credit rating, as determined by the agency Moody’s, was AAA between 1978 and 2013. It is currently Aa3, the fourth highest ranking.
Social media posts use outdated figures for comparisons between governments
26 January 2024
What was claimed
Since 2010, inflation has gone from 1.6% to 10.9%.
Our verdict
It’s not entirely clear what time periods these figures relate to, but assuming they relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure, they’re not quite right. Average CPI inflation in 2010 was 3.3%. It was 4% in the year to December 2023. Monthly inflation reached 11.1% in October 2022, and was 1.6% in August 2009.
What was claimed
Since 2010, average growth has gone from 2.5% to 0.003%.
Our verdict
In 2010, the UK’s economy grew by 2.2%. In 2022, the most recent full year we have data for, the UK’s economy grew by 4.3%. However in the third quarter of last year, the UK’s GDP was estimated to have fallen by 0.1%.
What was claimed
Since 2010, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate has fallen from $1.58 to $1.23.
Our verdict
As the exchange rate constantly fluctuates, it’s possible these figures have been right, but we don’t know what point in time this claim relates to. When Labour left office in May 2010, the exchange rate was $1.46. In the most recent full month we have ONS data for, it was $1.24.
What was claimed
Since 2010, NHS waits have gone from 2 months to 2 years.
Our verdict
Waiting times have increased since 2010, but the post seems to compare approximate median waits from 2010 to some of the current longest waiting times. In England the median wait for treatment to begin in 2010 was 5.5 weeks, compared to 14.4 in November 2023.
What was claimed
Since 2010, asylum claims have gone from 18,000 to 166,000.
Our verdict
In June 2010, 18,954 asylum claims (including initial claims and appeals) were awaiting a decision, compared to 165,411 in September 2022.
Several posts on social media platforms X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook have featured a list that apparently demonstrates what the “Tories inherited from Labour”, alongside statistics that compare the economic situation, NHS waiting times and asylum claims when Labour left office to “Now”.
The posts compare a range of statistics: “Credit rating”, “Inflation”, “Ave [sic] Growth”, conversion rates between the US dollar and the pound, “NHS waits” and “Asylum Claims”.
The text of the posts also seem to reference comments made by the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at Prime Minister’s Questions on 17 January, when he repeatedly said Labour party plans would take “us back to square one”.
While one of the claims in the posts is accurate, others appear to rely on outdated or slightly inaccurate figures.
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What’s happened to the economy?
As the posts refer to things the “Tories inherited from Labour”, we can assume the post compares the situation following the 2010 general election, when the Labour government lost power and the coalition government took office, to the situation now.
The first item in the image reads: “Credit rating AAA - Now Aa3”. The UK’s credit rating, a measure of how likely a nation is to pay back its debts, was AAA between 1978 and 2013, as determined by one ratings agency, Moody’s. AAA is the highest level of rating. The posts are correct to say this was the situation in 2010 when Labour left office. In 2013, the rating was downgraded to Aa1, the second highest level. As of October 2023, Moody’s rated the UK as Aa3, the fourth highest rating.
The posts also claim that inflation was “1.6%” but is “Now 10.9%”. The most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figure, the main method for measuring the price of things private households consume, was 4% (in the year to December 2023), according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). In the last 18 months it surpassed 10.9% and peaked at 11.1% in October 2022, but has decreased since then.
The posts also appear to understate the rate of inflation when Labour left office. CPI inflation was 3.4% in May 2010, and 3.3% on average for 2010. It was 1.6% in August 2009, while Labour still held office.
It’s not clear what measure of economic growth or time period the posts are referring to when they say “Ave [sic] Growth 2.5% - Now .003%.” We’ve not been able to find figures that reflect a current growth rate of 0.003%. In 2010, the UK’s economy grew by 2.2%. The ONS hasn’t released GDP figures for the end of 2023 yet, but in 2022 the economy grew by 4.3%. In the first quarter of 2023, January to March, growth was 0.3%; it was 0% in Quarter April to June 2023, and in the third Quarter, July to September 2023, the UK’s GDP was estimated to have fallen by 0.1%.
When discussing currency, the posts state “£=$1.58 - Now £=$1.23”. Exchange rates are in constant flux, and it’s not clear exactly which point in time they are referring to. In 2010, the monthly average exchange rate for pounds to dollars was higher than $1.58 in January and November, but the rate at the point when Labour left office in May 2010 was $1.46. The exchange rate on 17 January 2024 was $1.27, but the most recent month the ONS has calculated an average for is November 2023, when it was $1.24.
Other claims
The posts say “NHS waits 2month - Now 2years[sic]”. It’s not clear exactly what this relates to, but it’s possible it means referrals to treatment (RTTs), commonly used to mean the NHS waiting list. While waiting times have indeed increased since 2010, the posts seem to compare the approximate median waits from 2010 to some of the longest waiting times today.
In 2010, in England the median wait for treatment to begin was 5.5 weeks, compared to a median wait of 14.4 weeks in November 2023.
However, in 2010 the statistics for RTTs didn’t specify if waits were as long as two years. It monitored waits over 52 weeks, but did not show a breakdown of how long people were waiting past this point. In May 2010, around 20,000 cases involved waits of over 52 weeks. In November 2023, 355,412 people were waiting more than 52 weeks for treatment to begin.
The final claim in the posts reads: “Asylum Claims 18k - Now 166k”. These figures seem to loosely match those of the total number of asylum claims awaiting a decision.
In June 2010, there were 18,954 asylum claims awaiting a decision, including initial decisions and appeals. On 30 September 2023, the most recent quarter there are figures for, there were 165,411 applications awaiting a decision (both initial and appeals), though it was around 166,000 in December 2022 and reached 175,000 in June last year.
More recent data looking at asylum claims awaiting an initial decision shows there were 98,599 outstanding claims as of 28 December 2023, compared to 9,441 in June 2010.
This article is part of our work fact checking potentially false pictures, videos and stories on Facebook. You can read more about this—and find out how to report Facebook content—here. For the purposes of that scheme, we’ve rated this claim as partly false because these posts largely rely on outdated or inaccurate data.